Office of Stats...

Brendan Bettinger's Cinemath article talked about the linear regression model based on the five variables which includes: RT (The Rotten Tomatoes), Budget, Number of Theatres, if there is going to be a sequel, and whether it is a PG-13 or not.  When Bettinger tested his linear regression model, the 2010 and 2011 both have a near coefficient of determination of 61%. The graph shows that it is a positive association between the Rotten Tomatoes and the Domestic Box Office. In conclusion, the linear regression model have a good estimating gross. 

 

I like the article because it talked about many factors of film and how other variables come to play. I thought it was interesting how Brendan Bettinger thought about predicting the box office gross using statistics. I like how this relates to what we are learning right now and how this help my understanding of this unit better. I like how Bettinger described some movies does not work with the equation and yet he is still trying to find out but for some movies such as Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol and Rise of the Planet of the Apes.              To put the equation to test, I am going to select a random movie in 2011 like Thor. Here is the equation: Gross = –80 + 0.6×RT + 0.5×Budget + 0.025×Theaters + 50×Sequel + 20×PG13. 

In the Cinemath article, Bettinger showed us his theory of the box office gross by using the 2011 scatterplot. In AP Statistics, we are learning the making of scatter plots and to form its best fit "line" creating what is called the linear regression model. There was also a mentioned of coefficient of determination which was R2 in the article.         

                

In statistic class, we have only used two variables for the linear regression equation. We have touched on the R2 in class but have not gone deep into. We learned to what it is but not what it does.

Due to the calculation, I got $65.72 million but I could have made an error. I was not sure what to do with the sequeal and the PG13 because I did not know what to input and made it a one. In ending, the actual Domestic Total gross were $181 million. I want to predict the gross of the next movie that is going to come out using the equation. The movie Pusher that is going to come out on October the 26th, 2012 and the estimate gross is $215.5 million. The budget for the movie was low but the predicted gross is high so we will see...